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May 122016
 
What is the Footyforecast Statistical Method?

What is the Footyforecast Statistical Method?

The Footyforecast method was originally developed for the English Football Pools and attempts to eliminate those matches that will not be draws, leaving you with a shorter list of matches from which to choose your 8 from 11.

 

This method was introduced to the world in 1999 on the original Footyforecast website, developed by me (Malcolm Nossiter) it is now a main stay of the 1x2monster website.

 

The Footyforecast statistical method is a simple formula designed to reduce the amount of games you would need to choose from when selecting potential score draws for the UK pools coupons.

 

Footyforecast Statistical Method Calculation

 

    1. Work out the total number of points obtained for the last N games. As an example you could choose to use the last four games (home and away),
      e.g. WLDD = 3 +0 +1 + 1 = 5 points.
      You may also want to choose to use home games only for the home side and away games only for the away side.
    2. Work out the maximum number of possible points for the last N games.
      Normally this is just 3 * N and using the last four games played this would equal 12 points.
    3. Divide the total number of points obtained by the maximum available and multiply by 100.
      So for our example this would be 5 / 12 * 100 = 41.67.
      We can round this up to 42.
      For the home team this is called the HOMEVAL and for the away team the AWAYVAL.
    4. Calculate the forecast value.
      To calculate the forecast value do the following:
      FORECASTVAL = (HOMEVAL + (100 – AWAYVAL)) / 2

 

The general idea is to do the above for every game covered in the UK pools competition or other similar competitions across the globe, but what do these values mean?

 

To calculate the possible outcome of a match based on the Footyforecast method the FORECASTVAL is compared with the following…

  1. A FORECASTVAL  of 50 = a draw.
  2. A value between 50 and 100 gives an increasing chance of a home win the closer to 100.
  3. A value between 50 and 0 gives an increasing chance of an away win the closer to 0.

In practice you would use values in and around the 50 mark to select draws not just 50 by itself.
By plotting actual resulting draws against the forecast it is possible to generate two threshold values, one for away wins and one for home wins, any values in-between these thresholds have a stronger possibility of being a draw.

All matches outside these thresholds will be less likely to be draws. For example a value of 40 or less for away wins and a value of 60 or more for home wins. This would mean any matches falling between 41 and 59 have a stronger possibility of being draws.

Footyforecast Statistical Method Example Plot

Footyforecast Statistical Method Example Plot

 

This example graph shows a fictitious set of results to show how the actual results might plot onto the Footyforecast predictions. The left hand side ‘Y’ axis represents the number of results and the bottom ‘X’ axis represents the FORECASTVAL ranges.The blue bars show where the home wins have fallen and as you can see they should mostly fall within the upper end between 50 and 100. The Green bars represent the away wins and they are mostly falling in the lower region. Finally the red bars represent the draws which fall mainly around the center point of 50.

 

There will be the odd rogue result that falls in the wrong regions as has been shown in the example graph. However in the case of draws you can see that we could place imaginary cut off points at 30 and 70 which would then mean that we have a smaller number of matches to pick our draw possibilities from. Using this method the graph can be updated after every game week to build up a picture of how the predictions perform and where the best positions are to place our cut off points. A really useful tool for those following a pools type competition.

 




 

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