FOOTYFORECAST FORECASTING METHOD

The Footyforecast method was originally developed for the English Football Pools and attempts to elliminate those matches that will not be draws, leaving you with a shorter list of matches from which to chose your 8 from 11.

This is the original FOOTYFORECAST method. The FOOTYFORECAST method is similar to the Simple Sequence method.

Here is how it works.

For each team work out the following,

1. Work out the total number of points obtained for the last N games.
2. Work out the maximum number of possible points for N games.
3. Divide the total number of points obtained by the maximum and multiply by 100.
4. Calculate the forecast value.

In (1) and (2) above N games could be all the home games for the home side and all the away games for the away side. Alternatively N could be the last N games including all home and away games for a team.

The forecast value is calculated like this...

      forecast = (home value + (100 - away value)) / 2

Here is an example...
The values shown are the points gained by the team for each game in a sequence.

West Ham

H4 = 3     (oldest match)
H3 = 1
H2 = 1
H1 = 0     (most recent match)

Leeds Utd

A4 = 1     (oldest match)
A3 = 3
A2 = 0
A1 = 3     (most recent match)

Using only home games for home side and only away games for away side...

FFPHome = ((3 + 1 + 1 + 0) / 12) * 100 = 42

FFPAway = ((1 + 3 + 0 + 3) / 12) * 100 = 59

FFPForcast = (42 + (100 - 59)) / 2 = 42

To calculate the possible outcome of a match based on the Footyforecast method the value is compared with the following...

1. A forecast value of 50 = a draw.
2. A value between 50 and 100 gives an increasing chance of a home win the closer to 100.
3. A value between 50 and 0 gives an increasing chance of an away win the closer to 0.

There are a few variables here,  the number of matches to use and whether to use all matches or just home for home side and just away for away side to name but two.

By plotting actual draws against the forecast it is possible to generate two threshold values, one  for away wins and one for home wins, any values in-between these thresholds are likely draws. All matches outside these thresholds will be less likely to be draws. For example a value of 40 or less for away wins and a value of 60 or more for home wins. This would mean any matches falling between 41 and 59 may be draws.

What this method does, with careful tuning by the user is to eliminate many matches which will not be draws giving you a short list to choose  from. This method is best used where a Pools Plan is to be used.