RATEFORM FORECAST METHOD

The origins of the rateform method come from The Rating Of Chessplayers by Professor Elo, and from the Punters Revenge by Tony Drapkin and Richard Forsyth. The basis of the rateform method is that each team is given a points score based on their current form. Although this sounds simple, and it is, its calculation is a little more involved.

Here are the basic rules…

1. Each team is given a points score representing their current form.
2. At the start of the season each team is given 1000 points.
3. When a match is played both teams contribute some of their points towards a kitty.
4. The home team supply more points into the kitty than the away team. This is done to reflect the home teams advantage of playing at home.
5. The winning team takes the kitty, unless the result is a draw in which case both sides share the points. In the case of a draw the away side gains points and the home side looses points.

Here is how a typical calculation is made....

home team points total = HTPOINTS

away team points total = ATPOINTS

home team contribution to kitty = HTKITTY = 7% of HTPOINTS

away team contribution to kitty = ATKITTY = 5% of ATPOINTS

the kitty therefore = KITTY = HTKITTY + ATKITTY

if the result is a HOME WIN then

     home team receives KITTY points added to HTPOINTS

     away team receives zero points added to ATPOINTS

if result is an AWAY WIN then

     home team receives zero points added to HTPOINTS

     away team receives KITTY points added to ATPOINTS

if the result is a DRAW then

     home team receives KITTY / 2 points added to HTPOINTS

     away team receives KITTY / 2 points added to ATPOINTS

To calculate the possible outcome of a match based on rateform the away rateform is subtracted from the home rateform and the difference is compared against set values for home, away and draw possibilities.