SCORE PREDICTION METHOD

The Score Prediction method uses a teams goal performances over a specified period of time in order to predict the score of the game concerned.

As an example this is how FOOTYFORECAST handles this method. This is an example of a match and each teams respective goal count for the last five games:

home team    3-3  1-0 4-1  0-2 2-1

away team    0-1  2-2 0-3  6-0 1-3

We can work out some figures from this as follows:

home teams goals scored for = HGF = 3 + 1 + 4 + 0 + 2 = 10

away teams goals scored for = AGF = 1 + 2 + 3 + 0 + 3 = 9

home teams goals against     = HGA = 3 + 0 + 1 + 2 + 1 = 7

away teams goals against     = AGA = 0 + 2 + 0 + 6 + 1 = 9

Now we can work out points for each team based on the goals they have scored and the goals they have had scored against them as follows:

home goal points = HGP = HGF + AGA = 10 + 9 = 19

away goals points = AGP = HGA + AGF = 7 + 9 = 16

And now we can get a difference:

goal points difference = GPD = HGP - AGP = 19 - 16 = 3

Now we could classify this as follows:

GPD => +2 then home win,

GPD =< -2 then away win

GPD <+2 and >-2 then draw.

These parameters are configurable in the Score Prediction method panel.

Now we must use the GPD and one of three tables.

Here are the tables...

Home WIn Score Prediction

Home		Away
		>0	>11	>17	>26
>49	6	0	1	2	3
>43	5	0	1	2	3
>37	4	0	1	2	3
>30	3	0	1	2
>23	2	0	1
>0	1	0

Away Win Score Prediction

Home				Away
>23	>18	>13	>0
3	2	1	0	5	>34
3	2	1	0	4	>29
	2	1	0	3	>24
		1	0	2	>18
			0	1	>0

Draw Score Prediction

Home + Away
>44	3	3
>34	2	2
>24	1	1
>0	0	0

Since our match has generated a home win then we must use the HOME WIN SCORE PREDICTION table.

Now we need to calculate another parameter, that of home goal score points as follows:

HGSP = HGP + all goals scored by home team of 3 or more in a match + all goals against the away side of 3 or more.

therefore HGSP = 19 + 7 + 6 = 32

Now do the same for the away team:

AGSP = AGP + all goals scored by away team of 3 or more in a match + all goals against the home side of 3 or more.

therefore AGSP = 16 + 6 + 3 = 25

So, in the home win score prediction table we go to HOME > 30 which gives us 3 goals for the home team and go to AWAY > 17 giving us two goals for the away team therefore the result is predicted as a 3-2 home win.