SIMPLE SEQUENCE FORECAST METHOD

The Simple Sequence method is not just a single method, there are many ways of devising a simple sequence method, you could probably devise one of your own. The way the Simple Sequence method is implemented in Footyforecast is to use a weighting factor on each of a series of games. Lets see how this works.

A number of matches are used to look back at from the forecast date, this is set up in the methods panel for Simple Sequence. So lets say our team has the following results (newest on the right hand side):

W D L L W

This would give them the following points: 3 + 1 + 0 + 0 + 3 = 7

Now to take into account current form each is given a weighting factor, so the oldest match is multiplied by 1 up to the most recent match being multiplied by 5. Of course this will vary depending upon the number of matches you use, but for this example it gives us the following:

3*1 + 1*2 + 0*3 + 0*4 + 3*5 = 20points

Now lets say the away team playing against the team above have the following record:

W W D D D

They will have:

3*1 + 3*2 + 1*3 + 1*4 + 1*5 = 21 points.

The points difference HOME v AWAY = 20 - 21 = -1.

Now, depending how you classify this it could represent an away win, i.e. all matches below a points difference of 0 = away win, or it could be classed as a draw.