SUPERIORITY FORECAST METHOD

The Superiority method is based on goal difference (superiority) for both teams in a fixture over the past set number of games. Here is a description of the calculation process…

1. Get goal difference for each team.
   This could be either;
   a) All home games only for the home team
      All away games only for the away team
      over the last N games.
   Or
   b) All games for each team
      over the last N games.
    
2. Count each goal difference for both the home team and the away team as follows…
        Each goal difference increments an index in the following array:
        Index Value
        1   >-5
        2   –5
        3   –4
        4   –3
        5   –2
        6   –1
        7   0
        8   1
        9   2
        10  3
        11  4
        12  5
        13  >5
    
3. Now each home team array count is added to the opposite array count for the away side. So, the home teams array index 13 is added to the away teams array index 1, the home teams array index 12 is added to the away teams array index 2, etc.
    
4. The forecast can now be determined. If we assume that a draw is represented by array index 7 then array indexes 1 to 6 represent an away win, and array indexes 8 to 13 represent a home win. So, the home win counts are totalled and so are the away win counts. For example, say a fixture gave the following counts…
    
5. Index  Count
        1   0
        2   1
        3   1
        4   0
        5   0
        6   0
        7   2
        8   2
        9   3
        10  1
        11  0
        12  1
        13  0

       This would give a total count of…

AWAY = 2
DRAW = 2
HOME = 7

The total number of counts = 11

Therefore,

Away win possibility = 18%

Draw possibility = 18%

       Home win possibility = 64%.