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Mar 182018
 

Score Prediction for football (soccer) games is highly popular so here is an article describing one way of achieving it using simple statistics.

 

Score Prediction

In this article we describe the well known Score Prediction method. The Score Prediction method uses a teams goal performances over a specified period of time in order to predict the score of the game concerned.

 

Score Prediction Statistical Method - Basic Rules

 

As an example of the Score Prediction method this is how 1X2Monster handles this method. The example uses a single match and each teams respective goal count for the last five games:

 

home team 3-3 1-0 4-1 0-2 2-1
away team 0-1 2-2 0-3 6-0 1-3

 

We can work out some figures from this as follows:

 

home teams goals scored for = HGF = 3 + 1 + 4 + 0 + 2 = 10
away teams goals scored for = AGF = 1 + 2 + 3 + 0 + 3 = 9
home teams goals against = HGA = 3 + 0 + 1 + 2 + 1 = 7
away teams goals against = AGA = 0 + 2 + 0 + 6 + 1 = 9

 

Now we can work out points for each team based on the goals they have scored and the goals they have had scored against them as follows:

 

home goal points = HGP = HGF + AGA = 10 + 9 = 19
away goals points = AGP = HGA + AGF = 7 + 9 = 16

 

And now we can get a difference:
goal points difference = GPD = HGP - AGP = 19 - 16 = 3

 

Now we could classify this as follows:

 

GPD => +2 then home win
GPD =< -2 then away win
GPD <+2 and >-2 then draw

 

These parameters are obviously fairly arbitrary but experience should allow you to tune them more carefully.
Now we must use the GPD and one of three tables.

 

Here are the tables...

 

Home WIn Score Prediction

 

Away WIn Score Prediction

 

Draw Score Prediction

 

Since our match has generated a home win prediction then we must use the HOME WIN SCORE PREDICTION table to obtain our score prediction. To do this we need to calculate another parameter, that of home goal score points as follows:

 

HGSP = HGP + all goals scored by home team of 3 or more in a match + all goals against the away side of 3 or more

 

therefore HGSP = 19 + 7 + 6 = 32

 

Now do the same for the away team:

 

AGSP = AGP + all goals scored by away team of 3 or more in a match + all goals against the home side of 3 or more.

 

therefore AGSP = 16 + 6 + 3 = 25

 

So, in the home win score prediction table we go to HOME > 30 which gives us 3 goals for the home team and go to AWAY > 17 giving us two goals for the away team therefore the result is predicted as a 3-2 home win.

 

If you have the necessary skills you could go away and build your own spreadsheet of data or even write a piece of software to take in results and fixtures and apply the Score Prediction method to your data. Of course you may choose to use different values to those shown above and by experimenting you may come up with better values to use. Alternatively you could just use the score prediction data available on the tips page of each league on the 1x2monster website.

 

Further interesting reading on Soccer Prediction:

 

University of East Anglia. "Tweets can help predict the outcome of soccer matches." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 12 October 2017. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/10/171012200231.htm>.

 

Why Soccer Defies the Odds — Even for Oddsmakers
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/soccer-defies-odds-even-oddsmakers/

 

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